Opportunity knocks for corporate deals in face of volatility

Volatility in global markets is reshaping how companies pursue growth, prompting a shift towards opportunistic expansion and away from longer-term strategic dealmaking, according to the latest Dealmakers M&A survey from Pitcher Partners. 

Despite geopolitical uncertainty and an evolving regulatory environment, Pitcher Partners’ Dealmakers 2026 Outlook survey suggests dealmakers are increasingly preparing to act as opportunities arise, rather than actively pursuing strategic acquisitions. 

The survey found 85% of respondents described the rationale behind recent Australian investments as opportunistic, while just 10% said strategic acquisitions were in their plans, down from 40% last year and 55% in 2024. 

James Beaumont, Partner at Pitcher Partners Melbourne, said there was optimism that deals would continue to flow in 2026, particularly in the mid-market – deals valued between $10 million and $250 million. 

Mid-market deal activity strengthened in 2025, with transaction values rising to just under $20.9 billion. The survey also found 71% of respondents expect to increase mid-market deal activity in the year ahead. 

“Confidence is ramping up and the more active dealmakers remain agile, ready to strike when the right opportunity arises,” Mr Beaumont said.  

“In this market, opportunistic plays are trumping long-term strategy. 

“The global landscape moves so quickly these days and when it’s unclear what is coming next, an makes it hard to stay the course on long-term strategies.” 

Succession planning remains a leading deal driver, alongside divestment of non-core assets and debt availability. 

“These findings point to a market being shaped by intent, rather than forced transactions or cyclical stress,” Mr Beaumont said. 

“The increase in dealmakers’ confidence is striking, and when confidence rises, it shows up in the real economy through investment in new products and technology, expansion into new regions, and increased headcount.” 

Global volatility remains a key unknown over the next 12 months, and rising oil prices and potential supply chain disruption could dampen enthusiasm. 

Developments in the Middle East since the survey closed have added a new layer of uncertainty to global markets.  

While it is too early to know what impact the Iran conflict will have on investment in the coming months, Mr Beaumont said it was unlikely to support confidence. 

“We are not seeing deals stop on the ground, but events like this can unsettle confidence pretty quickly,” he said. 

“The longer disruption lasts, the harder it becomes to plan with certainty, so businesses will need to make judgement calls about how the conflict could affect them in the medium term. 

“If supply chain costs rise again, many businesses may be forced to absorb more of that pressure themselves. After several years of inflation, there is only so much more that can be passed on.” 

Andy Hough, Partner at Pitcher Partners Sydney, said uncertainty is known to shorten planning horizons, which helps explain why the market is shifting towards opportunistic deals over strategic ones. 

“Volatility does not eliminate deal appetite, but it changes the shape of it. Buyers become more tactical, more selective and more responsive to opportunities in front of them,” he said. 

“In the last 12 months, we’ve seen renewed volatility and market fluctuations driven by tariffs, trade deals, geopolitical tensions and AI investment.” 

For deals that do not proceed, familiar sticking points remain. Valuation gaps between buyers and sellers remain the primary obstacle, alongside disagreement on key commercial terms. 

Around one-third of respondents believe vendor valuations are unrealistic. 

“Price remains the toughest issue in most deals, but as confidence increases there is a much better chance of bridging valuation differences and getting transactions done,” Mr Hough said.